Tag: The Oscars (Page 3 of 3)

The ultimate Oscar acceptance speech, by Denis Leary

Variety has the best acceptance speech…ever…as written by “Rescue Me” star Denis Leary. (Keep in mind this is from the POV of an actress, not an actor.)

Okay. First of all — I’d like to thank God for just taking time out of His busy schedule curing cancer and feeding the hungry and solving the crisis in Darfur with George Clooney and helping so many different wide receivers and quarterbacks to throw and catch footballs and instead making sure that I got singled out of such a wonderful group of actors like Meryl and Mary-Louise and Cate Blanchett and Angelina and Marcia Gay and Kate Winslet and just – all the Kates and the Kevins and the two name and the three name people I feel so honored just to be up here while they are all down there and I’d like to just thank the Academy and the people who hated me and treated me like such dirt and who made me stab them in the back just to get here and now you can suck it and Botox! I almost forgot Botox! And Restylin and Cosmoderm and Prestocheek and Instatit and all the other animal agents I’ve had injected into my face and stuff. Oh my god my agents — I almost forgot the entire squad of agents and managers and hangers-on whose asses I have kissed and coddled for so many long B and C movie years now and also — it would be so bad not to thank my team of surgeons who have stretched and sculpted and pulled and pressure-pointed every aspect of my face, neck and armfat until I look so young and ripe and yet somehow still able to move my forehead and eyebrows just enough to frown and laugh and look focused which is a huge part of why I just won this!

And that’s just about a third of it…

Using statistics to predict the Oscars

Movie buffs love predicting Oscar winners, but stats guru Nate Silver decided to look at hard data and trends to come up with his own predictions. Political junkies are familiar with Silver, as his blog became one of the top resources for interpreting polls and predicting election results in the last cycle.

After spending most of 2008 predicting the success of political actors—also called politicians—it’s only natural that Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight.com) would turn his attention to the genuine article: the nominees in the major categories for the 81st Annual Academy Awards (Feb. 22 at 8 p.m. on ABC). Formally speaking, this required the use of statistical software and a process called logistic regression. Informally, it involved building a huge database of the past 30 years of Oscar history. Categories included genre, MPAA classification, the release date, opening-weekend box office (adjusted for inflation), and whether the film won any other awards. We also looked at whether being nominated in one category predicts success in another. For example, is someone more likely to win Best Actress if her film has also been nominated for Best Picture? (Yes!) But the greatest predictor (80 percent of what you need to know) is other awards earned that year, particularly from peers (the Directors Guild Awards, for instance, reliably foretells Best Picture). Genre matters a lot (the Academy has an aversion to comedy); MPAA and release date don’t at all. A film’s average user rating on IMDb (the Internet Movie Database) is sometimes a predictor of success; box grosses rarely are. And, as in Washington, politics matter, in ways foreseeable and not. Below, Silver’s results, including one upset we never would have anticipated.

Check out the article for his predictions. There aren’t many surprises, but it’s interesting to see the probability percentages he allocates to each category.

Peter Gabriel bows out of the Oscars

Nikke Finke is reporting over at her Deadline Hollywood Daily blog that Peter Gabriel has pulled out of performing “Down to Earth,” his contribution to the “Wall-E” soundtrack, at the Academy Awards because he doesn’t think the nominated songs, their writers, and their performers are getting enough respect during this year’s Oscars telecast.

Why? Because the producers of the show, Larry Mark and Bill Condon, have opted to present the three nominated songs within a medley.

Says Ms. Frinke:

I’m told the producers have slotted 90 seconds in the medley for each song sung by its original performer. But Gabriel said in his letter that he was only being offered 65 seconds for his song. “I don’t feel that is sufficient time to do the song justice, and I have decided to withdraw from performing,” Gabriel informed AMPAS. “I fully respect and look forward to the producers’ right to revamp the show. Even though song writers are small players in the filmmmaking process, they are just as committed and work just as hard as the rest of the team, and I regret that this new version of the ceremony is being created in part at their expense.”

What do ya’ll think? Personally, I don’t blame the guy. They had a chance to have Peter freaking Gabriel sing his Oscar-nominated song, and instead they said, “Can you cut it down a minute five?” If it’d been me, I don’t know that I’d have been nearly as polite with my response.

Oscars ’08: The show must go on

The Academy Award nominees were released this morning, and if nothing else, they only further proved just how worthless this year’s Golden Globes really were. Most of the categories filled out as expected, but there were a few surprises, including Best Picture and Best Director nods for “Juno,” a Best Actor nod for Tommy Lee Jones, and Sean Penn’s crapfest “Into the Wild” getting almost completely shut out; save for the deserved nomination of Hal Holbrook in the Best Supporting Actor category.

Check out the nominees in all of the major categories, and then click below to read the full list. I’ve also attached stars to my predicted winners, so come back and let me know what you think.

BEST PICTURE
“Atonement”
“Juno”
“Michael Clayton”
(*) “No Country for Old Men”
“There Will Be Blood”

BEST DIRECTOR
Julian Schnabel (“The Diving Bell & the Butterfly”)
Jason Reitman (“Juno”)
Tony Gilroy (“Michael Clayton”)
(*) Joel and Ethan Coen (“No Country for Old Men”)
Paul Thomas Anderson (“There Will Be Blood”)

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney (“Michael Clayton”)
(*) Daniel Day-Lewis (“There Will Be Blood”)
Johnny Depp (“Sweeney Todd”)
Viggo Mortensen (“Eastern Promises”)
Tommy Lee Jones (“In the Valley of Elah”)

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (“Elizabeth: The Golden Age”)
Julie Christie (“Away from Her”)
Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”)
Laura Linney (“The Savages”)
(*) Ellen Page (“Juno”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck (“The Assassination of Jesse James”)
(*) Javier Bardem (“No Country for Old Men”)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Charlie Wilson’s War”)
Hal Holbrook (“Into the Wild”)
Tom Wilkinson (“Michael Clayton”)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (“I’m Not There”)
Ruby Dee (“American Gangster”)
Saoirse Ronan (“Atonement”)
(*) Amy Ryan (“Gone Baby Gone”)
Tilda Swinton (“Michael Clayton”)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Christopher Hampton (“Atonement”)
Sarah Polley (“Away from Her”)
Ronald Harwood (“The Diving Bell & the Butterfly”)
(*) Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (“No Country for Old Men”)
Paul Thomas Anderson (“There Will Be Blood”)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
(*) Diablo Cody (“Juno”)
Nancy Oliver (“Lars and the Real Girl”)
Tony Gilroy (“Michael Clayton”)
Brad Bird (“Ratatouille”)
Tamara Jenkins (“The Savages”)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“Beaufort” (Israel)
(*) “The Counterfeiters” (Austria)
“Katyn” (Poland)
“Mongol” (Kazakhstan)
“12” (Russia)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Persepolis”
(*) “Ratatouille”
“Surf’s Up”

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
“American Gangster”
“Atonement”
“The Golden Compass”
(*) “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
“There Will Be Blood”

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins (“The Assassination of Jesse James”)
Seamus McGarvey (“Atonement”)
Janusz Kaminski (“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”)
(*) Roger Deakins (“No Country for Old Men”)
Robert Elswit (“There Will Be Blood”)

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Albert Wolsky (“Across the Universe”)
Jacqueline Durran (“Atonement”)
(*) Alexandra Byrne (“Elizabeth: The Golden Age”)
Marit Allen (“La Vie en Rose”)
Colleen Atwood (“Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“No End in Sight”
“Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience”
(*) “Sicko”
“Taxi to the Dark Side”
“War/Dance”

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Christopher Rouse (“The Bourne Ultimatum”)
Juliette Welfling (“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”)
Jay Cassidy (“Into the Wild”)
(*) Roderick Jaynes (“No Country for Old Men”)
Dylan Tichenor (“There Will Be Blood”)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
(*) Dario Marianelli (“Atonement”)
Alberto Iglesias (“The Kite Runner”)
James Newton Howard (“Michael Clayton”)
Michael Giacchino (“Ratatouille”)
Marco Beltrami (“3:10 to Yuma”)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
(*) “Falling Slowly” (“Once”)
“Happy Working Song” (“Enchanted”)
“So Close” (“Enchanted”)
“That’s How You Know” (“Enchanted”)
“Raise It Up” (“August Rush”)

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
“La Vie en Rose”
“Norbit”
(*) “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
“The Bourne Ultimatum”
“No Country for Old Men”
“Ratatouille”
“3:10 to Yuma”
(*) “Transformers”

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
“The Bourne Ultimatum”
“No Country for Old Men”
“Ratatouille”
“There Will Be Blood”
(*) “Transformers”

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Golden Compass”
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”
(*) “Transformers”

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