We’re getting off to a late start on this week’s box office preview, but it’s not like there’s a huge amount of suspense over what movie will rule the box office this early Spring weekend. Still, it’s not all skittles and beer out there.
America’s theater owners have decided to do a solid for the home entertainment business by trying to take advantage of the current 3-D mania by raising already inflated ticket prices during a still very rough economy/”jobless recovery.” I’m betting that whatever gains the owners see from this will be short term — especially as 3-D films become common as dirt with 3-D retrofits lowering the perception of quality — but that’s a rant for another day. However, one more thing, can someone explain to me how all the major chains increasing their prices over the same weekend doesn’t sound suspiciously like collusion, and if I’m right, how that can be legal?
In any case, the movie which will be generating a rude surprise at the box office for families nationwide is Paramount/Dreamworks digitally animated family fantasy-comedy, “How to Train Your Dragon.” The Hollywood Reporter‘s Greg Kilday is reporting that interest is increasing and as much as $40 million seems possible. Especially considering those extra inflated ticket prices and we know that once the family is at the box office, it’s far too late to turn back, I wouldn’t it expect it to go higher. Moreover, it sounds like people will be getting a dandy movie for their (too much) money. The reviews for this one are darn near Pixar-esque — in other words hugely positive — at least in terms of the Rotten Tomatoes numbers and when that many critics like a mass audience film, believe it not, most people will like it too.
With all due huge respect to Roger Ebert, who is predicting the film will come in at #2 based on his site traffic (he gave it only the mildest possible positive review and unlike others was not wowed by its 3-D either, it appears), this seems like the closest thing there is to surefire hit. Moreover, my spies in the family world tell me child interest has been high for weeks.
Still, I wouldn’t bet against a healthy showing for the film Mr. Ebert expects to be top new release this week, “Hot Tub Time Machine.” My spies in the middle-aged-overgrown-child-world (primarily: me, myself, I) tell me that interest in this raunchy but (I’m hoping) clever farce with a strong comedy cast and a instantly get-able premise has also been high for some time.
On the other hand, while some may be whispering of a coup along the lines of “The Hangover, my gut tells me it’s simply not the same kind of film and I don’t see this having the same kind of wide appeal. For all its guy-humor, “The Hangover” was a surprisingly sweet-tempered and almost low-key film by modern comedy standards, “Hot Tub Time Machine” seems to be more in the “Harold & Kumar” range of low-comedy that works for (relatively) high IQs. Anyhow, the film benefits from probably better than average reviews for this kind of comedy (62% “Fresh”). Kilday is talking in the high teens. I suspect it’ll do well and perhaps more than that, but not shockingly so.
In any case, it generated the best RT pull quote I’ve seen in awhile, courtesy of A.O. Scott, who finds an undercurrent of melancholy amidst the low comedy:
It’s fun, it’s sad, and it’s kind of sad that it’s so much fun.
Meanwhile, in the world of limited releases, “Chloe,” a movie much on my mind these days is opening in 306 theaters according to Box Office Mojo, a lot for a limited release. Considering the star power of its three leads, Julianne Moore, Liam Neeson, and Amanda Seyfried, who definitely moves her acting persona forward with this one, it should do at least okay. Oh, and I almost forgot the nude scene with the two female leads which won’t hurt, especially on home video, I suspect.
Still, it’s a tricky movie to guess about because of its somewhat arty, slow-burning style courtesy of director Atom Egoyan. If this is seen as an art-house film it could be in some trouble, especially given the so far very mixed critical reaction it’s received; my positive review just barely puts me in the critical majority as of right now. On the other hand, if audiences view it as a straight-up erotic thriller, which usually get terrible reviews anyway, I think it should do well.
Also, Noah Baumbach’s mostly critically liked comedy, “Greenberg,” starring Ben Stiller and Greta Gerwig is expanding from three theaters into 181 this week. It’ll be interesting to see how both it and “Chloe” do.
