Your comedy dollar is going to be hard fought for this weekend, with two cannily commercial entries making their debut, both of which seem destined for a success. But, how much, and which one will emerge on top? Or, could the R-rated counter-programming smash, “Sex and the City,” continue its sensuous reign? Most likely not, but even the mighty Variety feared to make a call between the two action-packed comedies. I’m nevertheless going out on a limb this week, but a pretty strong one….

* “Kung Fu Panda” is set to bring in about $40 million, says Holllywood Reporter resident oracle Carl DiOrio. Could be, could be more, says me. If there is any one set rule in the wacky world of showbiz where no one knows nothin’, it’s that movies appropriate for smallish children that adults get at least a small amount of entertainment always do well and, if they’re entertaining enough, they can be enormous. That’s the formula that’s driven the revolution in digitally animated films that owe a great deal to the anarchy and sophistication of classic era Warner Brothers cartoons.
This newest DreamWorks production seems like a strong enough contender; with a fresh concept and very big names in the voice cast (Jack Black, Angelina Jolie, Dustin Hoffman), there’s no reason this one can’t exceed expectations in a big way. In any case, positive, though not rapturous, reviews indicate that the film has some fairly strong adult appeal, which should help guarantee some longevity for this release.
Also, this is a movie that benefits from what you might call the “40-Year-Old Virgin” rule — movies whose title alone sufficiently explains an appealing premise tend to do well. I mean, what part of “Kung Fu Panda” does anyone over age four not understand? So, the only question is — how much do family audiences like pandas and martial arts? I’d say they like them both plenty. In terms of what’s visible to prospective filmgoers, the only thing “Panda” lacks is the character design genius of Pixar — but there’s only one Pixar.
* Still, I wouldn’t dare mess with “You Don’t Mess with the Zohan,” the latest from Adam Sandler. This is an interesting one, in that I, someone who has never found Adam Sandler even slightly funny (exceptions: the “Hannukah Song” and, for some reason, Opera Man), actually find the premise here — an Israeli super-commando tries to turn his metaphorical sword into scissors and gel as a hair stylist — quite amusing. It might be the participation of two undoubted, though also uneven, geniuses of the funny — Judd “I Rule the Comedy Box-Office” Apatow and SNL writer and Conan O’Brian cohort Robert Smigel, creator of Triumph, the Insult Comic Dog, the Ambiguously Gay Duo (voiced by Stephen Colbert and Steve Carrell), and, even better, the Superheroic Ex-Presidents.
As a stereotypically overly self-conscious liberal American Jew, I find making fun of ultra-confident killer Israelis incredibly amusing if done correctly, and I admit to getting a kick out of just reading the reviews, even if most of them are not all that impressed. However, though you’d never know it on any given night at Canter’s Deli or any Chinese restaurant in Manhattan, my tribe is less than 2% of the population. The Sandler name is going to be main selling point here. I guess the main question here is whether we’re finally ready for comedies touching on issues like terrorism and the Middle East. Should do at least a whole lot better than the disastrous but actually very likable “American Dreamz.”
(Reading tip: those of sharing my obsessions with Israeli stereotypes will want to read this incredibly long and interesting Smigel interview with Nathan Rabin of the Onion AV Club interview. You can also see an old SNL favorite of mine via embed at the AV club — it’s “Sabra Price is Right” in which Smigel first mined the Zohan vein of comedy, with the help of Tom Hanks in absolute top form.)
Meanwhile in Indiewood…. A rather large number of interesting films are opening in limited release, but I’ll give you two this week. First, off, along with “You Don’t Mess with the Zohan”, we have another film with a complete sentence for a title. “When Did You Last See Your Father?” is, of course, in every other way, a very different kettle of fish — a kitchen sink style literary adaptation from the UK debuting on eight screens and starring two of Britain’s best, Colin Firth and Jim Broadbent. Considering all the thud and blunder and silliness in theaters, this could be a stronger than expected bit of counterprograming that might grab middle-aged and older filmgoers with the eternal issue of father/son relationships, or not. Frankly, this is the kind of film which usually needs to grab a few Oscar nominations to make much of an impression, but it’s coming out a bit early for that, though it didn’t hurt last years mini-sleeper, the lovely and sad Canadian flick “Away from Her,” directed by Sarah Polley.
Also benefiting from a bit of critical hoopla is “Mongol,” a violent epic and the first film in a projected trilogy about the life of a certain very famous Mongol leader. (A.O. Scott has already dubbed it “Ghenghis Khan: The Early Years”). This best foreign language picture nominee is from a Russian director, has a Japanese star, and is shot in Mongolian. Can this one break through the subtitle barrier like a Mel Gibson ultraviolence orgy or “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”? Maybe or maybe not, but it looks like it’s worth a look.
And now I suddenly have a craving for Mongolian barbecue. Damn.