Even with my lousy record, I feel no compunction in calling the winner of this week. For once, we’ve got a sure thing.

*If “Iron Man” is not the #1 movie at the U.S. boxoffice this weekend, then there’s also an excellent chance that Mike Gravel and Ron Paul will be duking it out for the Presidency this fall as the Republican and Democratic nominees. With solid buzz, astonishingly good reviews, and little or no real competition for the young to middle-aged male movie dollar there is no bigger sure thing. The only question now is how much of a blockbuster we’re talking about. Both Carl DiOrio and Nikki Finke are talking about figures of $75, $80, $85 million or more, apparently based on “Iron Man” “tracking” better than the “The Hulk” back in ’03, which made $62 million its own opening weekend, and, well, lots of people actually seem to like this movie.

But, as always, there’s a possible fly or two in the ointment, because a lot of those people are critics and some folks are actually worried that in the wake of megasuccess of 100% character-and-plot free “Transformers” this could actually be a bad sign for the the first feature film solely produced by Marvel Entertainment. Among others, TV’s own Richard Roeper and Michael Phillips, after administering hearty thumbs-ups, worried that the film might be a bit, you know, un-stupid to make the monster dollars it needs. With a Pixar like score of 95% on the Tomatometer, the bar is definitely set high — if it only makes, say, $74,999,999.99, you can expect the schadenfreude to flow from Nikki Finke’s next column and elsewhere. Whoever wrote the line “This place is full of vultures, vultures everywhere!” wasn’t really talking about Casablanca.

Also, there is some concern about women given that it’s a superhero/action flick and that there’s lots of estrogen-fare on tap at the nation’s theaters, like last week’s winner, “Baby Mama.” On the other hand, as with the “Spider-Man” franchise, this film has more female appeal than usual with a stronger than usual character orientation and a bit of romance courtesy of well cast stars Robert Downey, Jr., playing a more troubled than usual superguy, and the lovely Gwyneth Paltrow as his woman Friday. Also, the light touch of director Jon Favreau (“Elf“) reminds us that the once young writer-star of “Swingers” has shown some real chops when it comes to fashioning solid, mainstream entertainment. Frankly, if this movie doesn’t pack ’em in, I’m not sure there’s hope for any of us.

* Oh, there actually is one other major studio with the temerity to open this week — though few heterosexual males (and not many discerning folks of any gender or sexual preference) will be likely to willingly attend the horribly reviewed Patrick Dempsey-Michelle Monaghan standard issue high-concept rom-com “Made of Honor.” This film is continuing a recent trend of major films with single digit RT scores. Though “Made” might benefit from the obvious counter-programming and the legitimate goodwill generated by its two stars, it will be lucky to come in an exceedingly poor second and could be defeated by the less patronizingly fem-friendly “Baby Mama.” We’ll see.

Meanwhile, in Indiewood.…They’re just starting to be rolled out in a very small number of theaters, but this week has two fairly major, nominally indie, films with some actual potential for mass appeal. Specifically, we’re talking about the latest from supermacho playwright-turned writer-director David Mamet, “Redbelt.” Though I’ve blogged about my issues with Mr. Mamet’s announced political conversion, I’m still looking forward to this one.

It could prove to be a low-key hit in the long run with the inherent male-centric interest of its subject matter, Mamet’s undoubted story-telling chops, and the appeal of mixed martial arts subject matter of its charismatic star, the outstanding, extremely busy, yet still underrated Chewitel Ejiorfor (Talk to Me, American Gangster, Dirty Pretty Things, Serenity, Inside Man, etc., etc., etc.) On the other hand the reviews this one is getting, including from our own David Medsker, are just slightly below par for Mamet. I wonder how long before someone claims it’s a case of anti-conservative bias.

On the other hand, the reviews are consistently kind, if muted, for the festival hit, “Son of Rambow,” reportedly inspired by the now legendary case of three middle-school boys making a homemade shot-by-shot remake of “Raiders of the Lost Ark,” but switching locales to England and the source flick to a much darker action movie. This PG-13 entry one also has my favorite MPAA rating explanation in a while. “For some violence and reckless behavior.” Could be fun.