Either the Weinstein Company did an extremely good job of managing expectations or box office prognosticators simply underestimated the potential of a director/brand name with a strong suit for entertaining a large swath of the moviegoing public, a premise with fairly proven guy appeal (revenge + WWII), and the additional gravy of an A-lister in a juicy, semi-lead role. In any case, for the second time in as many weeks, a very well-reviewed genre film has significantly over-performed and “Inglourious Basterds” has raked in an exceedingly healthy $37.6 million, say the box office estimates promulgated by THR, Nikki Finke, Variety, Box Office Mojo, etc.

Concerns which I brought up last time that the latest from Quentin Tarantino might be too cinema-esoteric for mainstream audiences have apparently proven to be a non-issue, at least for weekend #1. It’s outstanding foreign performance totaling $27.5 million is no surprise at all, especially given the subject matter and Tarantino’s  choice — which almost certainly made his job harder — to film the movie in several different languages rather than opting for the traditional mid-Atlantic or vaguely nation-specific accents we usually see in American-shot international tales. These are both, by the way, significant financial personal bests for Tarantino. Of course, that’s not “Transformers” numbers, but people will actually still likely be watching this one twenty years from now and probably longer, which means it will be making money for the putatively on-the-edge Harvey Weinstein and Universal for that time as well.

The same is also probably true in re: Tristar and Sony for this week’s #2 performer and that other transnational “well reviewed genre film” I mentioned above, “District 9.” The South Africa-set, politically charged violent sci-fi action piece brought in $18.9 million for a drop of just under 50% from last week, as there proves to be a market for combining a certain amount of brains with violent brawn. That’s even more impressive given the stiff competition from “Basterds” for largely the same audience.

As Nikki Finke points out, this is also a cheaper film than Tarantino’s in terms of not having to give big hunks of the gross to a big name director or star, though executive producer Peter Jackson gets a small taste for having the good sense and guts to strongly back Neill Blomkamp’s pony. La Finke also mentions a predicted 70% drop for “Basterds” next week because of “most” (????) colleges going back into session next week, but I wouldn’t expect that large a decline — unless the word of mouth indicates second-thoughts from filmgoers. Of course, these days, we’re supposed to be able to pick up more quickly on that via word of tweet.

As for the new releases that accompanied the basterds, they were pretty much left to rage against their marketing departments in their bunkers. “Shorts,” QT buddy Robert Rodriguez’s comedy aimed at the families who’d be steering far away from violent fare, apparently didn’t  have much more than some limited family appeal to trade on. It appeared in the #6 spot with an estimated $6.6 million. (Satan’s box office ranking!) That was, however, a veritable mint compared to the pitiful $2.8 million estimate for the comedy “Post Grad” from 1,959 venues.

And that was wealth beyond measure compared to the shockingly pathetic estimated take of the gimmick-based sports doc, “X-Games 3-D: The Movie.” Audiences apparently either didn’t hear about it, were too distracted by other films, or smelled some intense lame. Let’s call it a combination of all of those. It failed to even break a million with a sub-sub-sub poor estimated take of $800,000 on 1,399 screens. That means an 18th place showing for the one-week only release, which now must seem seven days too long to Disney/ESPN.

That also means the film from first-timer Steve Lawrence had a sub-horrible per-screen average of $572. Compare that to, say, the $3,654 average for “Julie and Julia” in the #5 spot, still going strong in its fifth week on the strength of strong mature/lady appeal. Only one movie in the top twenty had a worse per-screen performance, and that was last week’s well-regarded marketing disaster, “Bandslam.” That’s what I call extreme.

There are actually four new major releases coming out this weekend, but only one you’ll likely be hearing much about…and you’ve already been hearing about it, and hearing about it, and hearing about it, and we (mostly me) here at Premium Hollywood have been as guilty as anyone.

Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds” is set to make upwards of $25 million says jolly Carl DiOrio of THR and The Wrap’s Lucas Shaw. Those of you who have been following this know that the film’s take has been given more attention than a lot of movies because many suspect it will be crucial to the fortunes of Harvey and Bob Weinstein, formerly of Miramax and now of The Weinstein Company. (They say that they’re actually doing okay.) Harvey Weinstein is such a well known character that all the makers of “Entourage” had to do was hire similarly proportioned character actor Maury Chaykin and call him “Harvey” and 1/3 of the audience probably knew who was referenced. The Weinsteins have always been something of a throwback to the movie moguls of old times with their seat of the pants judgments and risk taking, so that lends a bit drama to the matter.

As for the critical reception, it’s about as good as Tarantino and the Weinsteins could have asked for, especially given that the film’s Cannes premier was greeted with a chorus that some have described as negative but was really all over the place; some proclaimed instant love, others expressed varying degrees of disappointment, and others were baffled. Now, after some apparently very effective tinkering on Tarantino’s part, the U.S. chorus at is singing mostly in harmony with an 88% “Fresh” at Rotten Tomatoes.  Though there has been a smattering of controversy over the film’s “once upon a time in Nazi occupied France” tone/plot no-longer-surprises, it’s a far cry even from the debates over violence that raged over “Kill Bill, Volume 1.” Oh well, one less source of free publicity.

There is an additional lure this time. For once, Tarantino isn’t reviving the career of his lead actor but is actually benefiting from the presence of an A-lister in no particular need of a comeback in Brad Pitt. The possible fly in the ointment is that we critics are different from other people: we see more films. No director on the planet so makes movies for movie fans as Tarantino and, as with his other films, there’s always the chance that viewers who aren’t fully steeped in cinema might be lost at sea. As Anne Thompson wrote a couple of weeks back after seeing what she thought was a greatly improved cut of the film:

“Inglourious Basterds” is great fun—for cinephiles. It’s not a mainstream movie. If it gets to $50 million domestic there will be cheers through the corridors of Universal and Weinstein Co. And it should easily do better than that overseas.

That second part of Thompson’s prophesy has already begun to be proven, with Variety‘s Pamela McClintock reporting Tarantino’s strongest opening yet in France, Belgium, and Francophone Switzerland. As for the reaction of regular ol’ Americans, only time will tell. Still, everybody seems to be expecting it to defeat the similarly male-leaning and violent “District 9” and at least match the $25.1 million opening weekend of “Kill Bill, Volume 2.

Carl DiOrio is guessing $8-10 million for the new release from Tarantino’s good pal and “Grindhouse” partner, Robert Rodriguez, who is using the same weekend to put out a film aimed at a completely different audience. Rodgriguez is almost the definition of an uneven director and his last family film, “The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl” was detested by PH/Bullz-Eye’s David Medsker and earned the eternal enmity of another family man of my acquaintance. (Of course, the hatred is exacerbated by the fact that his kids liked it, forcing him to endure parts of it over and over again.)

The PG-rated comedy, “Shorts,” got a similar 1-star reaction from Medsker but it did slightly better with critics as a whole with an unimpressive 36% RT rating. Still, I’m sure my friend will be hoping this one flies well below his kids’ radar, and he might not be alone. “Shorts” may be booked into nearly as many theaters (3,000+) as “Basterds,” but I doubt RR and QT will be mutually high-fiving each other over similar mega-million receipts on Sunday night.

Booked into just under 2,000 screens, “Post Grad” is a PG-13 comedy starring Alexis Bledel of “Gilmore Girls” and “Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants” about a recent college graduate who returns home to her wacky parents (Michael Keaton and Jane Lynch). It failed to impress our own Jason Zingale and did even worse with critics as a whole, netting a miserable 6% “Fresh” rating. Expectations are very, very modest — perhaps $5 million or so.

The last of the new major releases is a semi-interesting movie anomaly from Disney/ESPN. “X-Games 3-D: The Movie” will on about 1,300 3-D screens for a special one-week only engagement. Unfortunately, critics aren’t seeing anything special here other than an lengthy and expensive advertisement for the popular games and overall expectations here seem nearly as muted. There’s obviously an audience for this sort of thing, but I guess they’ll be too busy seeing the Basterd’s bash their way through alternative history.

Like I’ve been saying, this is Tarantino’s week.