As I recounted prior to the start of the long Christmas holiday frame last Tuesday, the oracles of the box office were predicting a reaction to “Little Fockers” somewhat in line with the 2004 performance of “Meet the Fockers.” Specifically, the numbers being bandied about were in the $60 or $70 million range for the entire five day period. The total gross instead appears to be roughly $48.3 million for Universal. That is only a couple of million higher than what “Meet the Fockers” earned over a three day period on its Christmas opening in 2004. Remember, movie ticket prices have gone up a few bucks since ’04.

Nikki Finke recounts how the megastar-laden film’s difficult and expensive $100 million production, helmed by the currently luck-challenged Chris Weitz, provided a windfall for Dustin Hoffman and, I understand, allowed him to almost literally phone-in large portions of his performance. Finke estimates that the lastest “Fockers” movie is earning only about 75% of what the prior comedy made. As for the critics, while “Meet the Fockers” left critics unhappy — as opposed to the very well reviewed original smash-hit, “Meet the Parents” — it was a regular success d’estime compared to the woeful reviews of the third film in what critics are praying will remain a trilogy. Strangely enough, this seems to correlate with diminishing returns for the series.

Overall, things weren’t any better, with Sony’s two expensive, poorly reviewed, star-laden turkeys  — “How Do You Know” and “The Tourist — being slaughtered in their second and third weeks, respectively. (To be fair, since it stars literally the two most famous people in the world right now not named “Obama” or “Oprah” or “Palin” or “Assange,” “The Tourist” is doing significantly better than the latest from James Brooks, but both films are money losers right now.) The extremely un-promising and critically derided “Gulliver’s Travels” was all but thrown to the wolves by Fox and its release was delayed until Friday. It opened in 7th place for the weekend with a Lilliputian estimate of $7.2 million.

Anne Thompson notes that this three-day weekend at the movies was 44% lower than last year, and had some choice words on the drop:

Little Fockers repped the widest-appeal offering among the weakest bunch of holiday releases in recent memory. At a time when studios usually try to maximize returns on their strongest pictures, they instead offered audiences a menu of costly, tame, MOR fare—and moviegoers stayed away in droves.

On the other hand, there was good news this Xmas weekend for movies deemed nice by critics. The critically beloved western from the critically beloved Coen Brothers, “True Grit,” was the weekend’s #2 film. An opening weekend personal best for the distinctive Joel and Ethan C., it earned roughly $38.8 million for Paramount over the five day period (it’s weekend estimate is healthy $25.6 million) while costing $62 million less that “Fockers.” Moreover the money is said to be “up on the screen” as the film is wowing viewers with Director of Photography Roger Deakins’ visuals. It also provides audiences with two high grade superstars (Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon) and even creates a potential new one in young Hailee Steinfeld. If you’re over 40, you might remember a time when film producers often saved money by creating new stars instead of trying to hide their mistakes behind established ones.

Also, contrary to the questionable conventional wisdom that young people have an inborn dislike of westerns (how can they dislike something they’ve never seen?), “True Grit” actually scored slightly better among younger viewers on Cinemascore. Especially considering inevitable Oscar nominations and the way all Coen films have of lingering in the public consciousness, the long-term prospects for big-time legs and Blu-Ray/DVD sales seems extremely bright here. Can’t wait to see this one.

There was also good news this week overall for limited release films like Sylvain Chomet’s animated “The Illusionist” and more so for Sofia Coppola’s “Somewhere” — getting decent reviews but also suffering some very pronounced critical backlash for the Michelangelo Antonioni-influenced younger Coppola.

Breaking out of the limited release ghetto to some degree, the critical darling and Oscar favorite from director Tom Hooper, “The King’s Speech,” did just fine, earning  an estimate of over $4.5 million in only 700 theaters. It came in at 11th place nationwide, just ahead of — wait for it, “How Do You Know” — which managed to eek out about $3.5 million in 2,483 theaters. Behold the power of Rotten Tomatoes.

Nikki Finke will give you a vision of low-rent corruption that, for all I know, is entirely true. It sure seems to match the often bizarre-to-inexplicable nominations and awards at times. One thing is sure, few of us will ever let the Globes live down that infamous 1982 award to Pia Zadora when she won “New Star of the Year in a Motion Picture” award for a movie called “Butterfly.” People make fun of the fact that the less than superb actress won the award, but it’s a lot more shocking when you consider that her competition was probably two of the more exciting movie performances of the entire 1980s, Howard E. Rollins in “Ragtime” and, more famously, Tim Hutton in “Ordinary People.” I guess they split the pro-talent vote. The category was dead within two years.

Meanwhile back here in 2010, the dramatic “Best Picture” list is mostly in line with the movies that are generally getting a lot of awards and nominations, though I’m sure people will have the usual disagreements. (I know I do). Also, no big surprise, “The Social Network” and “The King’s Speech” did very well in the nominations. “The Fighter” and “Inception” also got a bit of a boost that might Academy voters keep them in mind as Oscar dark horses.

This year’s “Comedy or Musical” Best Picture category is, however, a real doozy. It really looks like the foreign press thinks that comedies don’t really have to be good to be nominated; it’s a sort of twisted semi-reverse snobbery. I know reviews and awards are not the same, but the critically drubbed “The Tourist” got a “Fresh” rating of 07% from “Top Critics” and 20% from critics overall at Rotten Tomatoes. Could the reactions of Hollywood Foreign Press members be that different from domestic press?

I know there’s been some quibbling about whether it qualifies as a “Comedy.” That doesn’t really bother me. I’m sure it’s trying to be funny and probably has a happy ending. That makes it a comedy in my book, though not necessarily a good one. Also, I have nothing against contrarians who laud movies others deride, but the Hollywood Foreign Press isn’t some group of freethinking cinephiles in the tradition of Pauline Kael and Manny Farber.

As for the other films in the category, only “The Kids Are All Right” has been generating the kind of overall appreciation that makes it awards material. “RED” is a reasonably well-liked, successful film, but this will probably be it’s only award nomination outside of genre-specific groups. “Alice in Wonderland” did very well but got a “meh” critical reaction overall and will probably get some technical Oscar nominations. “Burlesque” is a movie that people barely liked as a sort of guilty pleasure and pretty clearly is only on the list because the Golden Globes people really want Cher and Christina Aguilera to drop by.

On the other hand, a couple of thoughts about the overall awards trends. It’s really looking like “True Grit” isn’t going to get a whole lot of Oscar love if these patterns hold, though it did do pretty well with the Critics Choice Awards. Between the past awards given to the Coen Brothers and Jeff Bridges (the Academy likes to spread the awards around) and the fact that even critics’ groups, the Coens’ natural constituency, haven’t given it that many awards, I’d say it’ll lucky to be one of the 10 films nominated for Best Picture. Not that that means I’m looking any less forward to seeing it. If anyone out really thinks that really awards make a movie necessarily better than one that doesn’t, please stop thinking that. On the other hand, it’s better when movies that win awards are, at least, considered to be good by a sizable number of people.

Not too much to say about the acting nominations except that they are generally in line with the overall starfracking and glamor obsession that is the Globes’ specialty. Therefore Lesley Manville’s highly unglamorous performance in “Another Year” was ignored. Let’s hope the Academy voters are a bit more discerning, though Manville’s character won’t be everyone’s cup of tea.

After the flip, I’ll present the complete list of awards, including for television. First, however, I’ll permit myself one TV thought, which is also a movie thought. The love for Olivier Assayas’s “Carlos” continues from the L.A. Film Critics awards, but this time it really was the 5.5 hour version, primarily intended for European television but shown on Sundance and screened in theaters here as well, that was nominated.

*****

1. BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
a. BLACK SWAN
b. THE FIGHTER
c. INCEPTION
d. THE KING’S SPEECH
e. THE SOCIAL NETWORK

2. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
a. HALLE BERRY, FRANKIE AND ALICE
b. NICOLE KIDMAN, RABBIT HOLE
c. JENNIFER LAWRENCE, WINTER’S BONE
d. NATALIE PORTMAN, BLACK SWAN
e. MICHELLE WILLIAMS, BLUE VALENTINE

3. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
a. JESSE EISENBERG, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
b. COLIN FIRTH, THE KING’S SPEECH
c. JAMES FRANCO, 127 HOURS
d. RYAN GOSLING, BLUE VALENTINE
e. MARK WAHLBERG, THE FIGHTER

4. BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
a. ALICE IN WONDERLAND
b. BURLESQUE
c. THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
d. RED
e. THE TOURIST

5. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
a. ANNETTE BENING, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
b. ANNE HATHAWAY, LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
c. ANGELINA JOLIE, THE TOURIST
d. JULIANNE MOORE, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
e. EMMA STONE, EASY A

6. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
a. JOHNNY DEPP, ALICE IN WONDERLAND
b. JOHNNY DEPP, THE TOURIST
c. PAUL GIAMATTI, BARNEY’S VERSION
d. JAKE GYLLENHAAL, LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
e. KEVIN SPACEY, CASINO JACK

7. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
a. DESPICABLE ME
b. HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
c. THE ILLUSIONIST
d. TANGLED
e. TOY STORY 3

8. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
a. BIUTIFUL (MEXICO/SPAIN)
b. THE CONCERT (FRANCE)
c. THE EDGE (RUSSIA)
d. I AM LOVE (ITALY)
(LO SONO L’AMORE)
e. IN A BETTER WORLD (DENMARK)

9. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
a. AMY ADAMS, THE FIGHTER
b. HELENA BONHAM CARTER, THE KING’S SPEECH
c. MILA KUNIS, BLACK SWAN
d. MELISSA LEO, THE FIGHTER
e. JACKI WEAVER, ANIMAL KINGDOM

10. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
a. CHRISTIAN BALE, THE FIGHTER
b. MICHAEL DOUGLAS, WALL STREET: MONEY NEVER
SLEEPS
c. ANDREW GARFIELD, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
d. JEREMY RENNER, THE TOWN
e. GEOFFREY RUSH, THE KING’S SPEECH

11. BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
a. DARREN ARONOFSKY, BLACK SWAN
b. DAVID FINCHER, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
c. TOM HOOPER, THE KING’S SPEECH
d. CHRISTOPHER NOLAN, INCEPTION
e. DAVID O. RUSSELL, THE FIGHTER

12. BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
a. DANNY BOYLE, 127 HOURS
SIMON BEAUFOY
b. LISA CHOLODENKO, THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
STUART BLUMBERG
c. CHRISTOPHER NOLAN, INCEPTION
d. DAVID SEIDLER, THE KING’S SPEECH
e. AARON SORKIN, THE SOCIAL NETWORK

13. BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
a. ALEXANDRE DESPLAT, THE KING’S SPEECH
b. DANNY ELFMAN, ALICE IN WONDERLAND
c. A.R. RAHMAN, 127 HOURS
d. TRENT REZNOR, THE SOCIAL NETWORK
ATTICUS ROSS
e. HANS ZIMMER, INCEPTION

14. BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
a. “BOUND TO YOU” — BURLESQUE
Music by: Samuel Dixon
Lyrics by: Christina Aguilera, Sia Furler
b. “COMING HOME” — COUNTRY STRONG
Music & Lyrics by: Bob DiPiero, Tom Douglas, Hillary Lindsey, Troy Verges
c. “I SEE THE LIGHT” — TANGLED
Music by: Alan Menken
Lyrics by: Glenn Slater
d. “THERE’S A PLACE FOR US” — CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE VOYAGE OF THE DAWN TREADER
Music & Lyrics by: Carrie Underwood, David Hodges, Hillary Lindsey
e. “YOU HAVEN’T SEEN THE LAST OF ME” — BURLESQUE
Music & Lyrics by: Diane Warren

15. BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
a. BOARDWALK EMPIRE (HBO)
Leverage, Closest to the Hole Productions, Sikelia Productions and Cold Front Productions, HBO Entertainment
b. DEXTER (SHOWTIME)
Showtime, John Goldwyn Productions, The Colleton Company
c. THE GOOD WIFE (CBS)
CBS Television Studios
d. MAD MEN (AMC)
Lionsgate Television
e. THE WALKING DEAD (AMC)
AMC

16. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
a. JULIANNA MARGULIES, THE GOOD WIFE
b. ELISABETH MOSS, MAD MEN
c. PIPER PERABO, COVERT AFFAIRS
d. KATEY SAGAL, SONS OF ANARCHY
e. KYRA SEDGWICK, THE CLOSER

17. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
a. STEVE BUSCEMI, BOARDWALK EMPIRE
b. BRYAN CRANSTON, BREAKING BAD
c. MICHAEL C. HALL, DEXTER
d. JON HAMM, MAD MEN
e. HUGH LAURIE, HOUSE

18. BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
a. 30 ROCK
b. THE BIG BANG THEORY
c. THE BIG C
d. GLEE
e. MODERN FAMILY
f. NURSE JACKIE

19. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES –COMEDY OR MUSICAL
a. TONI COLLETTE, UNITED STATES OF TARA
b. EDIE FALCO, NURSE JACKIE
c. TINA FEY, 30 ROCK
d. LAURA LINNEY, THE BIG C
e. LEA MICHELE, GLEE

20. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
a. ALEC BALDWIN, 30 ROCK
b. STEVE CARELL, THE OFFICE
c. THOMAS JANE, HUNG
d. MATTHEW MORRISON, GLEE
e. JIM PARSONS, THE BIG BANG THEORY

21. BEST MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
a. CARLOS
b. THE PACIFIC
c. PILLARS OF THE EARTH
d. TEMPLE GRANDIN
e. YOU DON’T KNOW JACK

22. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
a. HAYLEY ATWELL, PILLARS OF THE EARTH
b. CLAIRE DANES, TEMPLE GRANDIN
c. JUDI DENCH, RETURN TO CRANFORD
d. ROMOLA GARAI, EMMA
e. JENNIFER LOVE HEWITT, THE CLIENT LIST

23. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
a. IDRIS ELBA, LUTHER
b. IAN MCSHANE, PILLARS OF THE EARTH
c. AL PACINO, YOU DON’T KNOW JACK
d. DENNIS QUAID, THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP
e. EDGAR RAMIREZ, CARLOS

24. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
a. HOPE DAVIS, THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP
b. JANE LYNCH, GLEE
c. KELLY MACDONALD, BOARDWALK EMPIRE
d. JULIA STILES, DEXTER
e. SOFIA VERGARA, MODERN FAMILY

25. BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
a. SCOTT CAAN, HAWAII FIVE-O
b. CHRIS COLFER, GLEE
c. CHRIS NOTH, THE GOOD WIFE
d. ERIC STONESTREET, MODERN FAMILY
e. DAVID STRATHAIRN, TEMPLE GRANDIN

The estimate of $24.5 million for the weekend over at Box Office Mojo is more than $10 million shy of the low-end figures that jolly Carl DiOrio trumpeted and which sounded perfectly reasonable to me. Apparently, this series is not being greeted with anything like the same sort of loyalty a Harry Potter or “Lord of the Rings” receives. Just as apparently, Fox and Walden Media’s strategy of targeting those sometimes Harry-negative and nearly always C.S. Lewis-positive evangelical Christian groups didn’t do much. Sometimes people can tell when they’re being marketed to and they don’t always like it.

Even so, this series tends to do very well abroad. Also, as Nikki Finke mentions, the studio is banking on word of mouth to help smooth things over. I imagine the reason for that is the Cinemascore A rating mentioned by Anthony D’Alessandro. Fox’s decision to take this off Disney’s hands, while reducing the outsize budgets, may still prove wise.

It’s budget was a mere $100 million, about $50 million less than “Dawn Treader, and the difference between the prediction and the reality is not as enormous. However, this weekend’s #2 film’s grosses are not something that will put a spring in the step of Sony executives. “The Tourist” nailed an estimate of $17 million for the weekend, as opposed to the $20 million figure that was thrown out earlier. It might be a bit harsh for Nikki Finke to use the “tank” word, but expectations had already been tamped down hugely for a movie from a hot young director starring, pretty literally, the two most famous actors in the world.

When a movie directed by a critical darling like Florian Henckel von Donnersmark (“The Lives of Others”) gets drubbed by critics the way this one has — and the Rotten Tomatoes “top critics” have been especially harsh — there’s more at work than the sophomore slump. On the other hand, “The Tourist” did nail a decent B from Cinemascore, for what that’s worth. We’ll see whether my glib line about this being a movie with a great pedigree that could turn out be just a dog applies to the worldwide box office over the long haul. Despite everything, this could be another “Knight and Day.” Unfortunately, a movie doesn’t have to be particularly liked by anyone to do well.

It’s award season and things are looking a lot more interesting right now in the world of limited release. The week’s highest per-screen average by far was at the four theaters showing “The Fighter.” Grosses for director David O. Russell’s apparent comeback after the box office failure of “I Heart Huckabees” averaged $80,000, for an outstanding opening weekend estimate of $320,000. It’s pretty clear that Paramount’s evident commercial confidence in this film was eminently justified.

Also doing amazing business, “Black Swan” enjoyed a boffo second weekend with an average of over $37,000 in 90 theaters. It was actually the #6 movie in the country while showing in only a tiny fraction of the theaters its competitors are playing in, and garnered an estimate of over $3.3 million. Considering the ballet thriller’s $5.6 total take so far, a budget of only $13 million, and the near certainty of multiple Oscar nominations, this could be the year’s sleeper cash cow. I haven’t seen it yet, but I will say that studios should never underestimate the cross-gender appeal of over-the-top melodrama and a bit of terror. Fox Searchlight was smart not to.

“The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader” is the third installment in the adaptation of C.S. Lewis’s immensely popular fantasy novels. Though it was helmed by veteran filmmaker Michael Apted, it’s not entirely smooth sailing for the family-friendly adventures. Disney dropped the series after the somewhat disappointing showing of “The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian” back in 2008. Since then, as discussed by both Ben Fritz and jolly Carl DiOrio Fox has picked it up and trimmed the budget in partnership with Walden Media to an oh-so-thrifty $155 million (!).

That’s probably a good thing because it doesn’t seem to be generating a huge amount of excitement, at least from critics. On the other hand, Narnia fans are a sure bet to turn out and, as the first 3D installment in the series, “Dawn Treader” could enjoy a bit of a bump from those inflated ticket prices. DiOrio’s guess of $35-45 million seems reasonable.

From everything I’ve seen today, Sony’s “The Tourist” looks like it may be one of those movies that comes with the finest pedigree but just turns out to be a bit of a dog. Not only does this remake of a French thriller little-seen in the U.S. boast the truly enormous star voltage of Johnny Depp and Angelina Jolie, it’s the follow-up film to the Oscar winning worldwide success, “The Lives of Others” by German writer-director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck. I saw von Donnersmark introduce that film before its domestic opening. He turns out to be an extremely fluent and completely unaccented English speaker who, even before his film opened in the U.S., was not shy about his lust to take on American films.

The maker of the compellingly dour political thriller has taken on an attempt at a sophisticated, lighthearted thriller along the lines of such non-Hitchcock Hitchcock films as “Charade.” And, where that film had a screenplay by the great Peter Stone, this one has one credited to von Donnersmark, Christopher McQuarrie (“The Usual Suspects”) and Julian Fellowes (“Gosford Park”). You can’t blame a guy for trying.

The review by our own David Medsker was entirely unenthusiastic, but it was a rave compared with the highly negative reaction of critics overall. The same scribes who rhapsodized over “The Lives of Others” largely found “The Tourist” an exercise in high-gloss boredom. While audiences will be lured by the appearance of an ideal date movie the first weekend, you’ve got to wonder how the film will do once people see it for themselves. Still, about $20 million seems to be figure for the first weekend. We’ll see about the legs later on.

There’s also a bunch going on in the realm of limited releases. Looking at Box Office Mojo, we have a significant expansions of “Black Swan” after its boffo opening weekend. One brand new entry this weekend in five theaters is a new version of Shakespeare’s “The Tempest” which, despite starring the great Helen Mirren in a bit of gender-altering casting is getting pretty dismal reviews for famed/infamous director Julie Taymor.  A Shakespeare adaptation with bad reviews is a movie in trouble. “The Fighter” debuts also on four screens, though you can expect many more later.

In a movie world where acting modes lean to grim seriousness, leavened by the occasional out-and-out parody, it’s nice to see Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp channeling the gently tongue-in-cheek approach of folks like Audrey Hepburn and Cary Grant. What’s more impressive is that the director is the multisyllabic German director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck. His first-rate Oscar winner, “The Lives of Others” had its humorous moments, but it was heavy-duty stuff, pretty much the opposite of this kind of cinema souffle. Very interesting. The script is credited to a trio of writers, including Julian Fellowes (“Gosford Park”) and Christopher McQuarrie (“The Usual Suspects”).